Valero Energy (VLO) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $383.12, 5% from $403.28 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 70% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.089.

Cross-asset thesis: sustained crude price support from Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability) raises refining feedstock costs while demand-destruction concerns in a risk-off regime compress refining margins, decoupling VLO from a rising crude tape.

Probability

70%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 1in 2d

Made

Sep 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.