HITBrier 0.153

CAD/USD traded below 0.7200 on multiple days within the evidence window 2026-03-28 to 2026-04-11. Days below 0.7200: 2026-03-28 (close 0.71978), 2026-03-30 (close 0.71789), 2026-03-31 (close 0.71883), 2026-04-02 (close 0.71838), 2026-04-03 (close 0.71703), 2026-04-04 (close 0.7172), 2026-04-05 (close 0.71732), 2026-04-05 (close 0.71721), 2026-04-06 (close 0.71891), 2026-04-07 (close 0.72017). At least 9 days below 0.7200. Actual: 9+ days, Required: at least 2 days, 9 > 2 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Market

SHORT correctCAD

The CAD/USD exchange rate will weaken below 0.7200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security concerns from confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure force Canada to redirect oil exports, creating supply chain disruption despite energy exporter benefits

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.153.

Derived from: Wartime regime with confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure driving Brent above $110, creating complex cross-currents for energy exporters. Canadian energy infrastructure faces redirection costs while benefiting from higher prices. Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout at 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), supporting supply disruption persistence.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 11171d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.