Nickel futures (NI) will trade above $18,500 per metric ton on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime drives industrial metal demand while Middle East supply chain disruptions limit availability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-24. Brier score 0.039.

Derived from: Active wartime regime with confirmed Iranian oil field attacks. Industrial metals historically outperform during supply chain disruptions. 30-day timeframe optimization based on calibration feedback showing this timeframe has best performance (Brier 0.212).

Probability

20%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 16166d ago

Made

Mar 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.