MISSBrier 0.041

No search results found for BRICS grain reserve purchases or agricultural trade agreements within the evidence window. Search returned 0 results for BRICS-related grain or agricultural announcements from March 17-31, 2026. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Geopolitical

BRICS

At least one BRICS member nation will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or agricultural trade agreements within 14 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict disrupts regional food security

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.041.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Pakistan Military conducting active cross-border air strikes, Afghanistan conducting retaliatory operations. Game theory analysis projects gray zone escalation with supply chain disruption risks. BRICS coordination historically increases during regional conflicts affecting food security.

Probability: 20%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 31182d ago
Made: Mar 17

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Brazil will announce at least one new strategic petroleum reserve expansion or energy security initiative within 30 days as Iran conflict threatens global oil supply stability and BRICS energy cooperation intensifies

geopolitical32%MISS

Brazil will announce at least one new bilateral trade or defense agreement with a BRICS+ member nation within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios drive emerging market coalition building

geopolitical27%MISS

Brazil will announce at least one major defense procurement or military cooperation agreement within 30 days as BRICS realignment accelerates amid US-China trade war Fearon bargaining failure

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

At least one BRICS member nation will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or agricultural trade agreements within 14 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict disrupts regional food security

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture