At least one BRICS member nation will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or agricultural trade agreements within 14 days as Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict disrupts regional food security
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-17 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.041.
Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Pakistan Military conducting active cross-border air strikes, Afghanistan conducting retaliatory operations. Game theory analysis projects gray zone escalation with supply chain disruption risks. BRICS coordination historically increases during regional conflicts affecting food security.
- Probability
- 20%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Mar 31182d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.