HITBrier 0.712

USD/KRW market data shows the pair traded above 1,400 on ALL trading days during the evidence window (March 25-April 8, 2026). Sample prices: March 25 close: 1504.56, March 26 close: 1510.97, March 27 close: 1508.83, continuing through April 8 close: 1479.66. Required: above 1,400 on at least 2 days. Actual: above 1,400 on all 11 trading days. Threshold clearly met.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/KRW

The South Korean Won (USD/KRW) will weaken above 1,400 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as North Korea's Day of the Sun anniversary on April 14 and DPRK provocation cycle game theory projects ICBM launch with 70% confidence creating regional currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-25 at 16% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.712.

Derived from: Game theory analysis projects 'DPRK chooses ICBM launch; US chooses Sanctions escalation' with 70% confidence and Day of the Sun (DPRK) signal on April 14. Historical pattern shows Korean Won weakness during missile test cycles.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 25

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/KRW will trade above 1400 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market72%

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The South Korean Won (USD/KRW) will weaken above 1,400 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as North Korea's Day of the Sun anniversary on April 14 and DPRK provocation cycle game theory projects ICBM launch with 70% confidence creating regional currency pressure

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