MISSBrier 0.010

Data-resolved: SGD moved from 2.61 to 2.65 (1.53%) during 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-16. Target: below 1.32. Target not reached. Low was 1.91.

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongSGD

Singapore Dollar (USD/SGD) will strengthen below 1.32 on at least 4 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Malacca becomes critical alternative shipping route during Persian Gulf disruptions, creating safe-haven demand for Singapore's strategic position

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-02 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Confirmed wartime regime with Hormuz escalations forcing shipping route diversions, Singapore's position as alternative chokepoint controller, and signals showing Malaysia announcing emergency maritime security measures. Contrarian to regional currency weakness but Singapore's unique strategic value creates differentiation.

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 16166d ago
Made: Apr 2

Price Target$1.32

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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