MISSBrier 0.401

Analyzed USD/BRL price data within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Highest daily close during period was 5.32630 on March 15. No trading day showed USD/BRL above 5.80. Daily closes ranged from 5.06638 (April 9) to 5.32630 (March 15), all well below the 5.80 threshold. Instead of strengthening, BRL actually strengthened against USD during the period (USD/BRL declined from ~5.31 to ~5.08). Actual: 0 days above 5.80, Required: at least 3 days, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Market

LONG wrongBRL

USD/BRL will trade above 5.80 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios and active Iran military operations drive emerging market currency weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 63% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.401.

Derived from: Fearon bargaining failure on Iran (0% range) and US-China trade (0% range) indicating structural conflict likelihood. Active IRGC operations (36+ waves) create wartime regime risk-off flows. Compound probability: P(continued EM weakness) * P(BRL weakness|EM stress) = 0.85 * 0.85 = 0.72

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$5.8

Regimepeacetime

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.