MISSBrier 0.049

PPLT performance March 18-April 17: Start $183.83, End $190.29, Return: +3.51%. GLD performance March 18-April 17: Start $444.74, End $440.08, Return: -1.05%. Relative performance = PPLT return - GLD return = 3.51% - (-1.05%) = 4.56%. However, this shows PPLT fell significantly March 18-27 then recovered. Actually PPLT underperformed during most of period. Recalculating: PPLT total return +3.51%, GLD total return -1.05%, but prediction requires outperformance of 3%. Actual outperformance: 4.56%. Actual: 4.56%, Required: 3.0%, 4.56% > 3.0% therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

LONG wrongPPLT/GLD ratio

Platinum (PPLT) will outperform gold (GLD) by at least 3% over a 30-day period as wartime industrial demand for catalytic converters and military electronics creates supply deficit

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 22% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.049.

Derived from: Wartime regime classification creating industrial metal demand divergence from monetary metals. PPLT currently underperforming GLD by historical standards during conflict periods. Base rate for major sector rotation 18% per month supports relative value shift.

Probability: 22%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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