MISSBrier 0.099

Data-resolved: INTC moved from 95.80 to 108.60 (13.36%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 91.01. Target not reached. Low was 94.52.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongINTC

Intel (INTC) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $91.01, 5% from $95.80 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 31% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.099.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows critical fracture risk and 30% coalition stability with China maintaining gray-zone escalation; semiconductor supply-chain exposure to Taiwan-adjacent risk (distinct from already-covered TSM/SMH/MU/NVDA/AMD/FCX predictions) supports downside pressure on a fabless-adjacent name not yet covered.

Probability: 31%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$91.01

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Intel (INTC) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $127.87, 5% from $121.78 at creation)

market75%

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Intel (INTC) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $91.01, 5% from $95.80 at creation)

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