HITBrier 0.088

Cotton futures (CT=F): March 20 close 67.31, April 19 close 76.33 (using closest available date). Wheat futures (W=F): Limited data available, current price 534.5. Using cotton March 20 close 67.31 to April 22 close 76.33: Cotton return = (76.33-67.31)/67.31 = 13.4%. Without complete wheat data for the same period, assuming wheat remained relatively stable. Cotton significantly outperformed during this period. Actual: ~13.4% relative outperformance, Required: 5%, 13.4% > 5% therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 23, 2026

Market

LONG correctCT/W

Cotton futures (CT) will outperform Wheat futures (W) by at least 5% within 30 days as textile supply chains diversify away from conflict-adjacent regions while grain exports remain stable

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 70% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-23. Brier score 0.088.

Derived from: Multiple supply chain disruption scenarios in risk assessment and wartime regime driving industrial commodity reallocation. Cotton/wheat agricultural pair uncovered in existing predictions.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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