South Korea equity ETF EWY will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $181.32, 4% from $188.87 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 37% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.392.

North Korea Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence) combined with the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window (intensity 5/5, 2026-09-10) raises regional risk premium on Korean equities.

Probability

37%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.