MISSBrier 0.518

USD/CNY price data shows yuan STRENGTHENED during the prediction window. Highest USD/CNY value was 6.96 on March 17, 2026. Required: >7.35 yuan per dollar on at least 1 day. Actual: Maximum 6.96, which is 0.39 points BELOW the 7.35 threshold. The yuan never weakened past 7.35; it remained stronger than required throughout the period. Direction was also incorrect - yuan strengthened from ~6.87 to current 6.83.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCNY

The USD/CNY exchange rate will breach 7.35 on at least 1 trading day within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation creates yuan weakness

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait game theory scenario (China gray zone escalation 70% confidence) + safe haven dollar demand from 80% geopolitical escalation risk

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$7.35

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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