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NEXUS

Connect world events to market decisions. Research the evidence, test your thesis, and follow the outcome.

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Track Record

HITBrier 0.445

Early-confirmed: USD/TRY hit target above 35 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10, 2026-03-11. Current price: 44.09 (started at 44.05).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSD/TRY

The Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) will breach 35.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as NATO Article 5 readiness and Middle East positioning create currency pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.445.

Derived from: NATO Alliance intelligence showing heightened alert posture and Article 5 readiness, combined with Turkey's strategic position in multiple conflict scenarios

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$35

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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