China internet ETF KWEB will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $23.22, 5% from $24.44 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.163.

Derived from: fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) and the confirmed FXI breakdown below $34.90 already observed, indicating broad China-linked risk asset pressure that should extend to the more volatile internet-sector proxy KWEB.

Probability

40%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.