The correlation between Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Bitcoin will break above 0.75 within 7 days as wartime risk-off conditions force synchronized capital flight patterns from yuan weakness and crypto safe-haven flows
NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-18 at 10% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-25. Brier score 0.010.
Derived from: wartime regime creating capital flight pressures, US-China Trade War Escalation Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range), and existing prediction #10 showing CNY/AUD correlation already breaking above 0.80 within 14 days, indicating yuan stress patterns emerging. China PLA maintaining elevated South China Sea tempo adds currency pressure. Base rate anchor: day_count/market 44% hit rate, adjusted down due to correlation complexity and 7-day timeframe compression.
- Probability
- 10%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- May 25144d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.