MISSBrier 0.091

Data-resolved: XLP moved from 84.58 to 82.80 (-2.10%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 86.69. Target not reached. High was 84.89.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLP

Consumer staples ETF XLP will close at least 2.5% above its current reference level within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital rotates into defensive sectors away from cyclical exposure (target above $86.69, 2.5% from $84.58 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.091.

Risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, 80% escalation risk score) typically drives defensive-sector rotation; XLP not covered by any pending prediction, offering a distinct sector angle versus already-covered XLU/XLF/XLI/XLK.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2026d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$86.69

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR) will close at least 3% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as defensive rotation accelerates amid risk-off equity conditions (target above $85.28, 3% from $82.80 at creation)

market79%MISS

XLP will close at least 1.5% above its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 10, 2026 (target above $84.68, 1.5% from $83.43 at creation)

market72%HIT

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Consumer staples ETF XLP will close at least 2.5% above its current reference level within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital rotates into defensive sectors away from cyclical exposure (target above $86.69, 2.5% from $84.58 at creation)

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