The correlation between Bitcoin and SPY will break above 0.85 within 7 days as wartime risk-off conditions force synchronized selling across risk assets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-17 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-01. Brier score 0.065.

Derived from: Risk-off regime confirmed with SPY RSI 27.3 and Fear/Greed at 38. Two existing BTC predictions already show sub-$60k and sub-$55k targets, indicating crypto weakness expected. Wartime regime typically creates correlation spikes as all risk assets sell together. Reference class day_count/market shows 44% hit rate, adjusted down per calibration feedback.

Probability

26%

Timeframe

7 days

Deadline

May 24128d ago

Made

May 17

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.