Multiple sources confirm major Strait of Hormuz escalation starting March 19, 2026: 'Iran unleashes fiery revenge on Gulf oil hubs', 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Brent Above $110', and 'Israel Blew Open an Energy War With Iran' (New York Post, AD HOC NEWS, Haaretz, March 19-23). Bitget reported 'OVX crude oil volatility index above 120, its highest since April 2020' on March 16. AD HOC NEWS confirmed 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Brent Above $110 as Crude Oil Volatility Surges' on March 23. Actual: OVX above 120 reported, Required: above 45 on 2+ days, 120 > 45 therefore threshold met. Iran escalation probability materialized with documented attacks and energy infrastructure hits within prediction window.
Resolved Mar 26, 2026
Market
LONG correctOVX
Oil volatility (OVX) will close above 45 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability reaches 67% with Iran diplomatic brinkmanship strategy
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 56% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.193.
Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Strait of Hormuz Crisis with 67% escalation probability and Iran choosing diplomatic brinkmanship. 50% bargaining range insufficient given high escalation risk. Wartime regime demands volatility premium.
Probability
56%
Timeframe
7 days
Deadline
Mar 26187d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .
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