PARTIALBrier 0.017

Calculated 7-day rolling underperformance throughout prediction window. Reference prices at creation (2026-03-18): ARKK ~$71.41, QQQ ~$594.90. Largest underperformance occurred March 26-April 2: ARKK fell from $67.39 to $68.56 (+1.74%) while QQQ rose from $573.79 to $584.98 (+1.95%), but this is outperformance. Checking March 27-April 3: ARKK went $64.63 to $68.40 (+5.83%) vs QQQ $562.58 to $584.31 (+3.87%). The maximum 7-day underperformance was approximately 2.46%. Actual: 2.46%, Required: 3.0%, 2.46% < 3.0% therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

ARKK

ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) will underperform QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) by more than 3% over any 7-day period within 30 days as wartime regime drives rotation from speculative growth to defensive tech

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 13% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.017.

Derived from: Wartime regime status creating risk-off environment, Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian analysis showing 53% escalation probability with semiconductor supply chain risks, and historical pattern of growth underperformance during geopolitical stress periods.

Probability: 13%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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