Alibaba (BABA) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $106.45, 6% from $113.24 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.158.

US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions) combined with Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation and the confirmed US export-control/sanction actions against China (FCC/Xinjiang measures) support continued downside pressure on China ADRs.

Probability

40%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 218d ago

Made

Sep 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.