Homebuilders ETF XHB will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $93.03, 4% from $96.91 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 33% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.111.

Derived from: Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium favoring hawkish hold/guidance ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision, with no stable dovish equilibrium identified, implying continued mortgage-rate pressure on rate-sensitive homebuilder equities.

Probability

33%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 254d ago

Made

Sep 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.