AMD will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $453.69, 5% from $477.57 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.113.

Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) compounds semiconductor-supply-chain wartime risk-off pressure already evidenced by SOXX's confirmed 9.64% underperformance vs SPY in the prior window; AMD carries comparable TSM-fab exposure.

Probability

34%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.