MISSBrier 0.113

Data-resolved: AMD moved from 477.57 to 559.82 (17.22%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 453.69. Target not reached. Low was 480.33.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongAMD

AMD will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $453.69, 5% from $477.57 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.113.

Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) compounds semiconductor-supply-chain wartime risk-off pressure already evidenced by SOXX's confirmed 9.64% underperformance vs SPY in the prior window; AMD carries comparable TSM-fab exposure.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2026d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$453.69

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $526.23, 6% from $559.82 at creation)

market67%MISS

AMD will close at least 3% below its October 12, 2026 price on at least one trading day by October 26, 2026 (target below $589.86, 3% from $608.10 at creation)

market55%HIT

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AMD will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $453.69, 5% from $477.57 at creation)

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