USDCNY will trade above 7.35 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as PLA 9-day aircraft pause and corruption purges signal internal Chinese constraints amid regional tensions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-23. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: China PLA Intelligence showing 9-day pause in South China Sea operations + internal anti-corruption purges affecting senior leadership + Taiwan Strait scenario modeling China gray zone escalation at 70% confidence

Probability

72%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 23190d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.