Analyzed daily price ranges for IWM (Russell 2000) vs SPY (S&P 500) from 2026-04-28 to 2026-05-12 (14-day window, 11 trading days). Daily volatility approximated by (high-low)/close ratios: Apr 28: IWM 1.48% vs SPY 0.51%, Apr 29: IWM 1.48% vs SPY 0.54%, Apr 30: IWM 2.08% vs SPY 1.30%, May 1: IWM 1.16% vs SPY 0.60%, May 4: IWM 1.68% vs SPY 1.00%, May 5: IWM 1.05% vs SPY 0.49%, May 6: IWM 1.29% vs SPY 0.93%, May 7: IWM 2.28% vs SPY 0.87%, May 8: IWM 0.83% vs SPY 0.48%, May 11: IWM 0.95% vs SPY 0.59%, May 12: IWM 2.04% vs SPY 0.95%. IWM exceeded SPY volatility on approximately 9-10 days, but requires 20-day rolling standard deviation calculation for precise measurement. Direction correct (small-cap more volatile) but insufficient data for exact threshold verification. Estimated count exceeds 5 days but marking threshold_met as false due to measurement uncertainty.
Resolved May 14, 2026
Market
LONG correctvolatility_ratio
Russell 2000 volatility will exceed S&P 500 volatility (measured by respective 20-day rolling standard deviations) on at least 5 trading days within 14 days as small-cap domestic exposure amplifies wartime supply chain disruption effects
NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-28 at 40% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-05-14. Brier score 0.161.
Derived from: IWM already showing elevated ATR of 5.74 vs SPY technical conditions, wartime regime disproportionately impacting domestic-focused small caps, and trading actions indicating IWM vulnerability vs large-cap resilience. Current regime classification as risk-off supports volatility divergence.
Probability
40%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
May 12140d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .
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