MISSBrier 0.199

Data-resolved: XLF moved from 57.30 to 54.81 (-4.35%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: above 58.5. Target not reached. High was 57.62.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLF

XLF will close above $58.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.199.

A hawkish Fed hold (Bayesian Fed equilibrium) supports bank net-interest-margin expectations, a distinct catalyst from the broader risk-off framing that has driven prior XLF-adjacent bearish predictions.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$58.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLF (financial sector ETF) will close above $60.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market31%MISS

XLF (financial sector ETF) will close below $56.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%HIT

XLF will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis equilibrium (front-loaded bill issuance vs. rising term premium demand) pressures bank balance sheets amid broader risk-off credit stress (target below $54.18, 3% from $55.86 at creation)

market85%

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XLF will close above $58.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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