MISSBrier 0.095

Data-resolved: XLF moved from 58.10 to 55.86 (-3.86%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 60. Target not reached. High was 57.82.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongXLF

XLF (financial sector ETF) will close above $60.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 31% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.095.

Opposite-direction, distinct catalyst from existing XLF-below-$56.50 pending prediction: the Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium supports elevated net-interest-margin expectations for banks even amid broader risk-off equity weakness.

Probability: 31%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$60

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

XLF (financial sector ETF) will close below $56.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market37%HIT

XLF will close above $58.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

XLF will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the fragile Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis equilibrium (front-loaded bill issuance vs. rising term premium demand) pressures bank balance sheets amid broader risk-off credit stress (target below $54.18, 3% from $55.86 at creation)

market85%

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XLF (financial sector ETF) will close above $60.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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