HITBrier 0.105

Early-confirmed: PLTR hit target above 190.07 on 2026-09-23. Current price: 190.60 (started at 177.64).

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

LONG correctPLTR

PLTR (Palantir Technologies) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $190.07, 7% from $177.64 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 68% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.105.

Elevated multi-theater escalation risk (Taiwan gray-zone, DPRK ICBM cycle, Hormuz brinkmanship) supports defense-analytics demand; PLTR is an uncovered name offering fresh exposure distinct from LMT/RTX/ITA already referenced.

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$190.07

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

PLTR (Palantir) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $201.38, 5% from $191.79 at creation)

market83%

PLTR (Palantir) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $184.79, 6% from $174.33 at creation)

market35%MISS

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PLTR (Palantir Technologies) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $190.07, 7% from $177.64 at creation)

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