MISSBrier 0.126

Data-resolved: PLTR moved from 174.33 to 177.64 (1.90%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 184.79. Target not reached. High was 177.88.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctPLTR

PLTR (Palantir) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $184.79, 6% from $174.33 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 35% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.126.

80% overall escalation risk score with active Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium, Hormuz crisis, and defense-sector convergence signals (per thesis sector tags: defense, semiconductors); defense-tech names have historically rallied on sustained multi-theater escalation.

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$184.79

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

PLTR (Palantir Technologies) will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $190.07, 7% from $177.64 at creation)

market68%HIT

PLTR (Palantir) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $201.38, 5% from $191.79 at creation)

market83%

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PLTR (Palantir) will close at least 6% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $184.79, 6% from $174.33 at creation)

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