MISSBrier 0.181

Data-resolved: ETH moved from 2466.94 to 2679.66 (8.62%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: below 2350. Target not reached. Low was 2357.96.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongETH

ETH (Ethereum) will close below $2,350 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.181.

Risk-off equity conditions (Fear & Greed 38, SPY/QQQ capitulation-level RSI) and the wartime regime's 80% escalation score argue for continued crypto-risk-asset correlation with broader deleveraging, despite BTC's recent resilience above $75k.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$2,350

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Ethereum (ETH) will trade above $2,650 on at least one day within 14 days.

market54%HIT

ETH will close at least 7% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as the bullish Crypto Regulatory Clarity Bayesian equilibrium (institutional accumulation) drives a counter-trend rally decoupled from broader risk-off equities (target above $2813.39, 7% from $2629.34 at creation)

market81%

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ETH (Ethereum) will close below $2,350 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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