German 10-Year Bund yield will trade above 2.80% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security fears drive sovereign debt repricing and ECB policy constraints limit intervention capacity

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-12. Brier score 0.194.

Derived from: European Energy Security scenario in game theory analysis (bullish, 70% confidence) and ECB Intelligence Update showing cautious holding pattern amid geopolitical risks. Wartime regime with energy supply concerns creates sovereign debt pressure.

Probability

44%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Apr 4178d ago

Made

Mar 21

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.