German 10-Year Bund yield will exceed 2.90% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from wartime energy costs forces sovereign yield premium expansion

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-21 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-12. Brier score 0.364.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with 20% escalation probability. Knowledge bank shows European banking announcing emergency measures. Actor intelligence indicates ECB monitoring geopolitical risks and inflationary spillovers. Red Sea shipping disruptions create persistent energy cost pressures on European industrial base.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

German 10-Year Bund yield will trade above 2.80% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European energy security fears drive sovereign debt repricing and ECB policy constraints limit intervention capacity

market44%MISS

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German 10-Year Bund yield will exceed 2.90% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from wartime energy costs forces sovereign yield premium expansion

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