RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.70, 5% from $194.00 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 61% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-05.

Fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) and DPRK ICBM escalation dynamics support defense-sector demand; RTX is an uncovered pure-play defense name distinct from LMT/ITA/XAR already in the coverage map.

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 5in 6d
Made: Sep 21

Price Target$203.7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $210.83, 5% from $200.79 at creation)

market37%MISS

At least one major defense contractor (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, or BA) will announce new contract awards or production increases worth over $1 billion within 30 days as NATO missile defense enhancements and Article 5 readiness preparations accelerate

geopolitical52%MISS

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RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.70, 5% from $194.00 at creation)

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