MISSBrier 0.138

Data-resolved: RTX moved from 200.79 to 194.00 (-3.38%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 210.83. Target not reached. High was 201.75.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongRTX

RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $210.83, 5% from $200.79 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 37% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.138.

80% overall escalation risk score, dense calendar of defense-sector-linked flashpoints (Taiwan, DPRK, Hormuz), and confirmed NK missile tests support continued defense-sector demand and equity outperformance.

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$210.83

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $203.70, 5% from $194.00 at creation)

market61%

At least one major defense contractor (LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, or BA) will announce new contract awards or production increases worth over $1 billion within 30 days as NATO missile defense enhancements and Article 5 readiness preparations accelerate

geopolitical52%MISS

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RTX (Raytheon/RTX Corp) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $210.83, 5% from $200.79 at creation)

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