MISSBrier 0.294

Found multiple articles about Asian energy crisis and government responses, including 'ASEAN nations implement emergency measures' and general energy policy discussions. However, no specific announcement of Indonesian emergency fuel subsidy or energy support measure found within the 7-day window (March 26 to April 2). Actual: 0 specific announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

Indonesia will announce at least one emergency fuel subsidy or energy support measure within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy import costs above fiscal sustainability thresholds

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 54% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.294.

Derived from: Active wartime regime with Hormuz closure confirmed. Indonesia as major energy importer faces immediate fiscal pressure from elevated crude prices (Brent above $110 documented). Government typically responds to energy price shocks with subsidy announcements within 7-14 days based on historical pattern analysis.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Indonesia will announce at least one emergency fuel subsidy or energy support measure within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy import costs above fiscal sustainability thresholds

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