MISSBrier 0.178

Web search for Turkey military cooperation agreements with non-NATO nations from March 26-April 9, 2026 returned 7 results within the evidence window, but none specifically reported Turkey announcing new military cooperation agreements with non-NATO nations. Articles covered general Middle East conflicts, European defense market analysis, and other geopolitical topics, but no specific Turkish military cooperation announcements with non-NATO countries during the prediction period.

Resolved Apr 9, 2026

Geopolitical

Turkey will announce new military cooperation agreement with at least one non-NATO nation within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait strategic positioning creates alliance diversification pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-26 at 42% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-09. Brier score 0.178.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Iran Nuclear Breakout reaching 'Fearon bargaining failure' with 0% bargaining range and 20% escalation probability. Turkey controls critical Bosphorus chokepoint connecting Black Sea to Mediterranean. Reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' shows 50% hit rate, adjusted down for calibration feedback showing tendency to overestimate geopolitical policy changes.

Probability: 42%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 9173d ago
Made: Mar 26

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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geopolitical46%MISS

Indonesia will announce at least one emergency fuel subsidy or energy support measure within 7 days as Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy import costs above fiscal sustainability thresholds

geopolitical54%MISS

Malaysia will impose at least one new capital control or foreign exchange restriction within 14 days as regional chokepoint disruption triggers currency defense measures

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Turkey will announce new military cooperation agreement with at least one non-NATO nation within 14 days as Bosphorus Strait strategic positioning creates alliance diversification pressure

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