Broadcom (AVGO) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) continues to weigh on semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing (target below $318.91, 6% from $339.27 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis (bargaining range 25%, escalation probability 53%, coalition stability 30%, critical fracture risk) applied to semiconductor supply-chain exposed names.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 16in 17d

Made

Sep 16

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.