HITBrier 0.388

Early-confirmed: AVGO hit target below 340 on 2026-09-15. Current price: 338.36 (started at 357.90).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctAVGO

AVGO (Broadcom) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $340.00, 5% from $357.90 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.388.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium flags technology as a key sector under gray-zone escalation/economic deterrence dynamics (fragile, critical fracture risk); semiconductor supply-chain exposure distinct from already-covered NVDA/AMD/MU/TSM/INTC names.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$340

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Broadcom (AVGO) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) continues to weigh on semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing (target below $318.91, 6% from $339.27 at creation)

market85%

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AVGO (Broadcom) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $340.00, 5% from $357.90 at creation)

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