MISSBrier 0.340

Data-resolved: NFLX moved from 71.79 to 71.14 (-0.90%) during 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-26. Target: above 75.38. Target not reached. High was 73.87.

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Market

LONG wrongNFLX

Netflix (NFLX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from extreme oversold conditions (target above $75.38, 5% from $71.79 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-26. Brier score 0.340.

NFLX recently hit a confirmed -5% decline (78.25->74.34) amid the broader QQQ RSI 28.4 capitulation extreme; contrarian bounce thesis mirrors the BUY QQQ trading action's 45% confidence rationale on fear-zone pricing being temporary.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 19

Price Target$75.38

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Netflix (NFLX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $74.34, 5% from $78.25 at creation)

market40%HIT

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Netflix (NFLX) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 7 days as a technical mean-reversion bounce from extreme oversold conditions (target above $75.38, 5% from $71.79 at creation)

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