Netflix (NFLX) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $74.34, 5% from $78.25 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 40% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-18. Brier score 0.355.

Deep oversold momentum on SPY/QQQ (RSI 27-28, MACD histograms -3.0/-3.6) with no fundamental catalyst for sustained recovery per the thesis implies high-beta discretionary/growth names like NFLX remain vulnerable to renewed risk-off legs despite technical bounce attempts.

Probability

40%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 209d ago

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.