MISSBrier 0.128

Data-resolved: EWJ moved from 98.28 to 97.00 (-1.30%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 95.33. Target not reached. Low was 96.23.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEWJ

EWJ (Japan equity ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.33, 3% from $98.28 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 36% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.128.

Japan Government Intelligence Update flags accelerating rightward posture and China tension amid Taiwan Strait fragile equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk); risk-off spillover into Japanese equities during the Rosh Hashana/UNGA convergence window.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$95.33

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Japan equity ETF EWJ will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $94.04, 4% from $97.96 at creation)

market49%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

EWJ (Japan equity ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.33, 3% from $98.28 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture