MISSBrier 0.241

Data-resolved: EWJ, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-22 through 2026-10-06. Target: below 94.04. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 99.32 (2026-10-06).

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongEWJ

Japan equity ETF EWJ will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $94.04, 4% from $97.96 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.241.

Japan Government actor-intelligence flags accelerating rightward trajectory, territorial claims, and military-incident escalation with China amid the fragile Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical), raising regional risk premium on Japanese equities.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 610d ago
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$94.04

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EWJ (Japan equity ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $95.33, 3% from $98.28 at creation)

market36%MISS

EWJ will close at least 1.5% below its price at prediction creation on at least one trading day by November 6, 2026 (target below $97.83, 1.5% from $99.32 at creation)

market69%HIT

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Japan equity ETF EWJ will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $94.04, 4% from $97.96 at creation)

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