MISSBrier 0.145

Data-resolved: DIS moved from 105.31 to 102.67 (-2.51%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: below 100.04. Target not reached. Low was 102.37.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctDIS

Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off equity conditions pressure high-beta consumer discretionary names (target below $100.04, 5% from $105.31 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 38% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.145.

Confirmed risk-off regime with SPY/QQQ capitulation-level RSI readings (27.3/28.4) and Fear & Greed 38 signal broad equity stress disproportionately affecting high-beta discretionary names like DIS.

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2123d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$100.04

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $99.67, 4% from $103.82 at creation)

market84%MISS

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Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off equity conditions pressure high-beta consumer discretionary names (target below $100.04, 5% from $105.31 at creation)

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