MISSBrier 0.711

Data-resolved: DIS, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-23 through 2026-10-07. Target: below 99.67. Contract threshold not met. Deadline close: 104.76 (2026-10-07).

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongDIS

Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $99.67, 4% from $103.82 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 84% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-08. Brier score 0.711.

Risk-off regime with SPY/QQQ in technical capitulation (RSI 27.3/28.4) and no fundamental catalyst for recovery per thesis; discretionary consumer names are historically first to reprice lower in risk-off equity regimes.

Probability: 84%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 79d ago
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$99.67

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off equity conditions pressure high-beta consumer discretionary names (target below $100.04, 5% from $105.31 at creation)

market38%MISS

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Walt Disney (DIS) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $99.67, 4% from $103.82 at creation)

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