South Korean won (USD/KRW) will trade below 1400 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Ulchi Freedom Shield-linked DPRK provocation risk (actor-belief adjusted probability 4%) fails to materialize into sustained won weakness following the prior confirmed spike above 1420.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-09 at 46% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-19. Brier score 0.290.

Derived from: Actor-belief analysis showing South Korea military action probability adjusted to only 4% (low absolute risk despite trigger), mean-reversion tendency following the recently confirmed USD/KRW spike above 1420.

Probability

46%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Aug 2354d ago

Made

Aug 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.