HITBrier 0.441

Early-confirmed: USDKRW hit target above 1370 on 2026-09-16. Current price: 1367.18 (started at 1345.43).

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSDKRW

USD/KRW will trade above 1,370 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 34% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.441.

DPRK Provocation Cycle Nash equilibrium (ICBM launch / sanctions escalation, mixed, 70% confidence) alongside the UNGA/Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window elevates regional risk-off pressure on the won, building on the prior confirmed pattern of USD/KRW spikes above 1,420 during comparable DPRK-linked windows.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$1,370

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

South Korean won (USD/KRW) will trade below 1400 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Ulchi Freedom Shield-linked DPRK provocation risk (actor-belief adjusted probability 4%) fails to materialize into sustained won weakness following the prior confirmed spike above 1420.

market46%HIT

USD/KRW will trade above 1,420 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise window raises DPRK provocation risk (actor-belief adjusted probability 4%, up from 2% baseline) and compounds broader wartime regional risk-off currency flows.

market49%HIT

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USD/KRW will trade above 1,370 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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