Brazil equity ETF EWZ will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as the October 4 presidential election proceeds under a fragmented, high-uncertainty field (target below $35.64, 5% from $37.52 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-21.

Polymarket's near-zero pricing across all named Brazilian presidential candidates (Bolsonaro, Alckmin, Leite, Rebelo, Barbalho all at 0% YES) signals an unresolved, fragmented electoral outcome; EM risk-off overlay (EEM already confirmed a downside move) compounds election-driven volatility.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 21in 22d

Made

Sep 21

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.