MISSBrier 0.158

Data-resolved: EWZ moved from 37.86 to 37.52 (-0.90%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 36.35. Target not reached. Low was 36.86.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEWZ

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows compress emerging-market equity exposure (target below $36.35, 4% from $37.86 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 40% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.158.

Risk-off regime confirmation (Fear & Greed 38, 80% escalation risk score) combined with UUP dollar-strength dynamics historically pressures EM equity ETFs; EWZ not currently covered by pending predictions.

Probability: 40%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$36.35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Brazil equity ETF EWZ will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as the October 4 presidential election proceeds under a fragmented, high-uncertainty field (target below $35.64, 5% from $37.52 at creation)

market85%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows compress emerging-market equity exposure (target below $36.35, 4% from $37.86 at creation)

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture