Market
SHORT correctUSD/JPYUSD/JPY will trade below 153.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 41% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-08. Brier score 0.353.
Distinct catalyst/timeframe from prior resolved USD/JPY predictions: wartime safe-haven demand plus the 80% overall escalation risk score and Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) argue for renewed yen strength over a longer 30-day window than the previously denied 14-day calls.
- Probability
- 41%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 77d ago
- Made
Price Target$153
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.