MISSBrier 0.090

Data-resolved: DBB moved from 26.29 to 25.81 (-1.83%) during 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-24. Target: above 27.34. Target not reached. High was 26.03.

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

LONG wrongDBB

Base metals ETF DBB will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $27.34, 4% from $26.29 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 30% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.090.

Taiwan Strait fragile Bayesian equilibrium (gray zone escalation / economic deterrence, 30% coalition stability) plus China property-stimulus dilemma create supply-chain and stockpiling pressure on industrial metals; CPER is already covered but DBB captures a broader base-metals basket not yet claimed.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$27.34

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

DBB (base metals ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as China property/stimulus dilemma weighs on industrial metals demand (target below $25.04, 3% from $25.81 at creation)

market85%

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Base metals ETF DBB will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $27.34, 4% from $26.29 at creation)

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