Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma scenario shows fragile mixed equilibrium (targeted bailout vs long-China-recovery), and DBB already broke down recently (-1.83% over prior 14d) despite failing prior 4% up target, indicating persistent downside pressure.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$25.04

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Related Forecasts

Base metals ETF DBB will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target above $27.34, 4% from $26.29 at creation)

market30%MISS

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